| Reference code: | PT/FB/BL-2014-085.05 |
| Location: | BF-GMS
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Title:
| A social cognitive approach to clinical gut: The impact of backward and forward inferences on psychotherapist’s metacognitive confidence and information seeking
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| Publication year: | 2016
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URL:
| https://esconlisbon2016.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/abstracts_escon2016_a5.pdf
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| Abstract/Results: | ABSTRACT:
The non-decomposable nature of a psychotherapy session favours intuitive judgments (see Hammond et al., 1987), which may have lingering effects on psychotherapists’ conceptualization of patients’ conditions. Specifically, the feeling of rightness associated to intuitive judgments (e.g., Koriat, 2012, Thompson et al., 2012) is likely to lead to overconfidence and to the use of a confirmatory hypothesis testing strategies. This, may compromise therapists’ evaluation of their clinical (intuitive) judgments. This tendency could be moderated if besides backward inferences (causal explanations) therapists were requested to make forward inferences (predictions) based on the same session information. Forward inferences are associated to more uncertainty than backward inferences (Hogarth, 2010), and are expected to be associated to an open mindset (e.g. Fiedler et al., 2005). Therefore, forward inferences could decrease overconfidence in the clinical judgment and promote non-confirmatory information seeking, thus contributing to therapy effectiveness. Two studies manipulate inference direction to test the aforementioned hypotheses. Study 1 used a between-participants design to manipulate backward or forward inferences about a fictional case in order to induce causal (closed) or predictive (open) mindsets. Dependent measures inclu-de confidence ratings (feelings of rightness) for each judgment and perceived judgments’ utility to prepare the following sessions. As expected, making backward inferences lead to a) higher feelings of rightness; and b) higher perceived utility. Study 2 (data collection is undergoing) was designed to replicate Study 1 and to shed light on the underlying psychological mechanisms. Specifically, psychology students are presented with two cases and requested to estimate the probability of causal factors for the client’s symptoms for one case and the probability of future effects of the client’s symptoms for the other case. After each clinical judgment, confidence (feeling of rightness) is measured. Subsequently, participants rate their willingness to include their judgments in the client’s report (Koriat & Goldsmith, 1996). Finally, participants information se-eking strategies are assessed by asking them to a) rate the likelihood of several diagnosis; and b) select the symptoms they would like to know more about in order to better understand the client’s case. Backward inferences (closed mindset) should lead to higher confidence and a more confirmatory information seeking strategies than forward inferences (open mindset). Feelings of rightness are expected to mediate the relation between causal reasoning (backward vs. forward inferences) and the information seeking strategy. Strategies to prevent overconfidence stemming from clinical intuitions are discussed.
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| Accessibility: | Document exists in file
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Language:
| eng
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Author:
| Jacinto, S.
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Secondary author(s):
| Ferreira, M., Braga, J., Ferreira, M.
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Document type:
| Abstract book
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Number of reproductions:
| 1
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Reference:
| Jacinto, S., Ferreira, M., Braga, J., & Ferreira, M. (2016, August). A social cognitive approach to clinical gut: The impact of backward and forward inferences on psychotherapist’s metacognitive confidence and information seeking. Abstract book of the ESCON Transfer of Knowledge Conference 2016 (pp. 33-34). Lisboa.
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| Indexed document: | No
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| Keywords: | Clinical judgments / Psychotherapy
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A social cognitive approach to clinical gut: The impact of backward and forward inferences on psychotherapist’s metacognitive confidence and information seeking |